Donald Trump: After this week, can anyone beat him? (2024)

Backstage after the debate, the eight rivals and their teams were frantically pitching their version of why they had won the night and were on course to claim the Republican nomination.

But the huddles of listeners were thinning out and a notably bigger media scrum was forming just outside the “spin room”, around a man representing a candidate who had not bothered to turn up at all.

“When you have a 60-point lead, dominating the field, you don’t go into a set-up,” Donald Jr, the eldest son of the absent former president, was saying. The decision to skip the first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee that night made sense. “Trump’s been successful in everything he’s done . . . by not being stupid, by making smart decisions.”

Of his father’s looming arrest in Georgia, Donald Jr said: “That will only help him, as the other indictments have.”

Less than 24 hours later, on Thursday, Trump walked into Fulton county jail in Atlanta to be arrested for the fourth time this year and pose for the first criminal mugshot of a former US president in history. Booked on racketeering charges first designed to combat the mafia, the ex-leader was assigned the prison inmate number P01135809, accused of overseeing a “criminal enterprise” to overturn his 2020 election defeat in Georgia.

Trump’s defiant scowl produced an image that will define the 2024 presidential campaign and the former president’s time as the dominant figure in the Republican Party long after he is gone. At a stroke, the squabbling among his rivals on the debate stage was all but forgotten. A week that opponents had hoped would kickstart their challenge instead showcased a party still in thrall to Trump.

As he has at every turn in this extraordinary presidential campaign, Trump set about turning adversity to his political — and financial — advantage. Within seconds of the mugshot’s release, Trump’s team issued a fundraising email offering T-shirts emblazoned with the historic photo, in return for a $47 donation.

Trump’s skill at commanding the narrative is one for which his Republican opponents have no answer. Even in his absence, he dominated the debate and loyalty to him remains the yardstick by which all the candidates are judged.

The former governors of New Jersey, Chris Christie, and Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson — the only two candidates to level genuine attacks at Trump — were roundly booed.

The standout performer on the night was Vivek Ramaswamy, a young biotech millionaire who is an open admirer of Trump and declared him “the best president of the 21st century”.

“What this debate really became about was the race for second place,” said Gunner Ramer, political director at the Republican Accountability Project PAC, which is campaigning against claims that the 2020 election was rigged.

“You can’t beat something with nothing and these candidates aren’t offering anything to Republican primary voters.”

Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who was neck-and-neck with Trump in polls at the start of the year but has seen his challenge flounder, desperately needed a strong showing on Wednesday to revive his campaign. Instead, the governor was outflanked by Ramaswamy.

The defining moment came when moderators asked the eight candidates to raise their hand if they would support Trump as the nominee even if he is convicted of the criminal charges against him. All but two raised their hands.

Ramaswamy’s hand shot up. DeSantis looked furtively around at the other candidates before half-heartedly raising his.

Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign spokesman, said that the Florida governor was “not only dead in the water, he’s at the bottom of the ocean with cinderblocks tied to his feet”.

Trump had also arranged his own television footage. As the debate broadcast began, a recorded interview with the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson was released on Twitter/X.

Trump made a string of incendiary claims, including suggesting that the January 6, 2021, riot, when his supporters stormed the US Capitol was a “beautiful day” of “love and unity”.

When asked if he feared his political enemies might try to kill him, the former president said: “They’re savage animals. They are people that are sick. Really sick. You have great people in the Democrat Party, you have great people that are Democrats. But I’ve seen what they do, I’ve seen the lengths that they go to.”

The latest polls underlined his stranglehold on the primary. A Morning Consult poll taken the day after the debate showed Trump retaining his commanding lead, on 58 over cent among Republican voters, 44 points clear of DeSantis on 14 per cent. Ramaswamy, the only candidate to get a bump from the debate in Milwaukee, climbed to third, on 11 per cent. Whether the events of last week help Trump win the White House is much less certain, however. President Biden has scrupulously avoided commenting on Trump’s indictments, but could not resist when asked about Trump’s mugshot on Friday, quipping that his rival was a “handsome guy”.

Although the photo will be a rallying point for his supporters, it is also a potent symbol of his alleged criminality. Democrats are just as likely to make it central to their campaign while Trump makes court appearances in four cities. Tens of millions of dollars raised by the Trump campaign on the back of his indictments are reportedly being funnelled into his legal defence.

Concerns that Trump’s indictments may guarantee him the presidential nomination but doom the party to defeat next year nag at many Republicans. Even among loyalists, there are fears that the former president’s refusal to move on from his 2020 defeat will make it impossible to win back the swing voters who defected to Biden in battleground states three years ago, and will again decide next year’s election.

“Like a lot of people, I was hoping that someone would be a credible alternative,” Alek Skarlatos, a Republican strategist and congressional candidate at last year’s midterm elections, said in Milwaukee. He admitted that “DeSantis has fallen flat”, however, and that Trump’s march to the nomination looks all but inevitable.

While his rivals cling on, hoping for a miracle, pressure on them to drop out of the race will intensify. Mike Waltz, a Florida congressman who has endorsed Trump, said that the race was in effect over and called on the party to unite behind Trump and focus on defeating Biden. Waltz said: “I think Trump’s got the nomination and we need to get talking about the general [election].”

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