Game 3 of the NBA Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET in Dallas on Wednesday. The Boston Celticsheld serve at home and hold a 2-0 series edge over the Dallas Mavericks, giving Boston a chance to take a 3-0 lead on the road. But the Celtics may be without Kristaps Porziņģis, who isquestionable with a left posterior tibialis dislocation.
Our Action Network staff has locked in on sevenNBA Finals best bets, including picks against thespread, series leader predictionsand numerous player proppicks.
Read below for our Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3 picks onWednesday, June 12.
Celtics vs. Mavericks
Wednesday, June 12, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Kristaps Porzingis Over 3.5 1Q Points (Bet365)
If Porzingis misses Game 3, read herefor potential betting angles in his absence.
But if he does in fact play in Game 3, I’m going to run this until the wheels fall off. That said, given the injury concerns, I'd only risk a half unit here.
Porzingis has played 6.5 and 7 minutes in both first quarters and taken five and three field goals, but has also been 2-of-2 and 4-of-4 from the charity stripe to have scored 11 and 8 first quarter points.
The line just remains too low for a players that’s exceeded 3.5 1Q points in 81% of games this season. Even if his minutes are capped at seven, he is over in 6-of-8 this season, with 8+ points in 5-of-8.
I’ll once again sprinkle on the alts of 7+ (+425, Bet365) and 10+ (+1300, Bet365).
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 3.5 1Q Points
Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 RA (-115 BetMGM) | 5+ Rebounds in Every Game (+200, FanDuel) | Series Rebounds Leader (+5000, ESPN BET)
Jrue Holiday has been tremendous throughout the playoffs for the Celtics but has truly shone through in the Finals. He has been dominant on both sides of the ball and is making his presence known as both a disrupter and a facilitator.
Holiday is averaging nearly 38 minutes per game in the Finals compared to 30 during the regular season. In his last 10 games, he is averaging 11.5 RA and has exceeded this line in 8-of-10; more importantly, he’s tallied 13 and 14 in this series. The opportunity is also clearly there. He has averaged 9.5 rebounds on a series-leading 16.5 rebound chances, along with four assists on 9.5 potential assists per game during the Finals.
I like him to exceed 10.5 RA here, a number he’s cleared in six straight.
I’m going to escalate this as well. I’m grabbing Holiday to secure 5+ rebounds in every game (+200, FanDuel); he’s had eight on 14 chances and 11 on 19 chances in these two games. His rebound distance is a bit far (9.7) but he’s secured two and four offensive rebounds in these games, which is from cutting, slashing and game plan. The floor is high.
Let’s also take him to lead the series in rebounds (+5000, ESPN BET). He’s just one rebound behind Tatum and two behind Dončić for the series lead. It’s unlikely, but this number is clearly wrong given he is leading in chances throughout the series.
Brandon Anderson andJim Turvey are both on these with me.
Pick:Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 RA (-115 BetMGM) | 5+ Rebounds in Every Game (+200, FanDuel) | Series Rebounds Leader (+5000, ESPN BET)
Jayson Tatum Triple-Double (+1600, DraftKings)
ByMaltman
Jayson Tatum has been really good in this series. The shooting numbers don't reflect that because the Mavericks have been trying to take away his scoring. But in response, he has been distributing better than ever — or at least that's what I assumed.
But Tatum actually had his career high in assists in the Finals in 2022 with 13. In Game 2 of this year's series, he came one rebound away from a triple-double. His potential assists have remained constant, with at least 13 in each game this series.
These odds are just way too long at +1600. The points will be there and his rebounding has consistently been great all playoffs. I think the chances he get's there are somewhere between 10-20%. It's a must-bet at these long odds, so I'm betting .2u on Tatum triple-double at +1600 at DraftKings and would bet that down to +1000.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Triple-Double (+1600)
Mavericks -0.5 1H (FanDuel)
This is it, Dallas.
If the Mavs have any chance in this series, which I gave them beforehand, then they have to win this game.
Knowing that, I think they at least play well in the first half.
They got a bad shooting Boston outing in Game 2, so that may feel like a missed opportunity, but we still haven't gotten a good one from the Mavericks, who have shot better in every series than they have in the Finals so far. In addition, I think we finally find Kyrie Irving in Game 3 — not that he'll suddenly light up the Derrick White, Jrue Holiday combo, but is he going to continue not making shots?
Kristaps Porziņģis is also a question mark, and he's been a first-half killer. I like this up to -1.5, but found a -0.5 on FanDuel as of Tuesday.
Pick: Mavericks -0.5 1H
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 1Q Points (DraftKings)
Luka Doncic could be the biggest beneficiary of a hobbled or missing Kristaps Porzingis.
My initial inclination of the Celtics’ rotations are that we will see more Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman or even Oshae Brissett and not necessarily a huge uptick for Al Horford, who is already playing 30 minutes per game and has only played 32 per game without Porziņģis during these playoffs.
More minutes with Kornet or Tillman likely mean more drop coverage for the Celtics, which is immediately exploitable for Doncic. We should see that rotation in the first quarter, with Horford only averaging eight first-quarter minutes. Even if Porzingis can go, I can see Doncic trying to get him in the action to test the injury.
This postseason, Doncic has been tremendous to start games after a loss. In the six prior games following a loss, Doncic is averaging 12.8 1Q points and has exceeded this mark in 4-of-6, with the misses both at eight. He comes out locked in and focused.
Besides that, Tim MacMahon reported that, “Luka Doncic received a pain-killing injection before Game 2 to numb the area of his thoracic contusion” and is expected to “get another shot before Game 3.” That shot should be most potent to start this game and Doncic will feel a bit of relief to start the game. The start of the game is when he is most fresh and it’s another reason to back him.
Finally, Dallas found some success late in the fourth quarter when it started to run some more complex actions including Spain PnR. This is something that will be even easier to exploit if Porzingis is limited or out.
I’m backing Doncic to start hot.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 8.5 1Q Points
Mavericks 1H -2 (DraftKings)
We have a spot trend and injury alignment for this angle in Game 3. The Mavericks haven't looked great in the Finals thus far, but we've also seen this before with teams that don’t perform well on the road but come out with a vengeance in the first half of Game 3. The Mavs fit just about every trend in the book, so I’ll give you a few of them — all are from Bet Labs.
The first one — which is the least telling but I’ll share it nonetheless — relates to the Luka Dončić Mavericks specifically. When the Mavericks are home favorites coming off a loss, they’re 3-1 ATS in the first half. I don’t give this trend too much credence because it’s such a small sample size and only applies to their 2022 Western Conference Finals run, but I think it speaks to the resilience and “screw-you” attitude Dončić has in these kinds of scenarios. We know he gets up for big games, and I think this tells us he comes out swinging at home when his team is down in a series.
More broadly, in Games 1, 2 or 3, when the higher-seeded team is on a win streak of two or more but is a road 'dog, the home team is 50-29-2 ATS in the first half going back to 2005. If we exclude Round 1, that improves to 28-13-1 for 28.3% ROI.
You’ve probably already heard the trend of home teams down 0-2 in Game 3, but if we look at beyond Round 1, it’s a better record at 39-16-2 ATS for 34% ROI.
Finally, another strong trend from our NBA futures analyst Brandon Anderson: Game 3 home teams off a loss of five or more are 115-67-7 ATS (63.2%), and if we look at just the Conference Finals and beyond, that goes to 20-7 ATS for 20.4% ROI.
Since this is mostly a trends play, I’ll like this at whatever number it gets to.
Pick:Mavericks 1H -2
Dereck Lively II Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds (DraftKings)
Dereck Lively II has not been good this series at all, but a large reason is the mere presence of Kristaps Porzingis.
Porzingis is in question because of an injury (Matt Moore, Joe Dellera and I went over that in detail earlier today in a separate piece) and if hesits, Lively is the biggest beneficiary.
My guess is Porzingis sits. Joe Mazzulla made it clear that it was up to the team, not Porzingis, as to whether or not he could play through this mysterious lower body injury. Additionally, Game 4 would be Friday. The gap between Games 3 and 4 is the only two-day gap in this series between games. Boston is up 2-0 and very good on the road. So Porziņģis has every reason to sit.
For this Over, Lively has gotten seven rebounds in each of the first two games of this series. I think that should stay there, if not increase, so this is a bet that he scores more than two damn points in a game.
The downside is Dallas could experiment with a 5-out offense, but regardless, Lively should bounce back in his minutes with Porzingis out.
