Highlights
State Enrollment
California experienced the 6th consecutive decrease in total Public K-12 Enrollment in the 2022-23 school year (-40,000 students), enrolling 5,852,500 students. Over the next ten years, if current trends in fertility and migration hold, a further decline of 661,500 in total enrollment is projected, resulting in total enrollment of 5,191,000 by 2032-33.
County Enrollment
The largest increase in county enrollment across the projection period is expected in Placer County, which will gain 6,300 students between 2022-23 and 2032-33. The biggest decline in enrollment is expected in Los Angeles County which will fall by 278,600 students by the end of the 10-year projection. Overall, 17 counties will have increased public K-12 enrollment by 2032-33.
High School Graduates
Graduates hit a peak of 454,500 in 2021-22 and are projected to remain above 426,000 until 2025-26, before falling to 381,000 at the end of the 10-year projection. The largest increase in graduates is expected in El Dorado County, which will add 215 graduates by the end of the 10-year projection. Overall, 9 counties will see an increase in the number of high school graduates by 2032-33.
Extended Projection
New for this year is an extended projection beyond the standard 10 years of data. Please note that these projections are a continuation of the Grade Progression Ratios used for the original projection, therefore they do not reflect any changes in assumptions after the initial 10-year period.
Data Sources
Enrollment data used to produce this report were obtained from the California Department of Education. Actual births were obtained from the California Department of Public Health while projected births were produced by the Demographic Research Unit.
Methodology
Enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR), cohort-survival, projection model to project enrollment in kindergarten through twelfth grade and high school graduates. The GPR is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends and incorporating the migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county. Entering cohorts of kindergartners (including transitional kindergarteners) and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.
User Notes
Changes to the kindergarten age of admission impact elementary enrollment patterns making the 2023 series inconsistent with projections series produced prior to the 2010 series. Kindergarten enrollment includes students enrolled in transitional kindergarten. The 2023 series incorporates changes in kindergarten enrollment due to the expansion of transitional Kindergarten to cover all 4-year-olds by 2025-26.
Historical Data (1989-90 to 2022-23) has been updated to mirror California Department of Education data sets, prior series omitted ungraded as well as California Special Schools and California Youth Authority programs.
Suggested Citation
State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2023 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2023.
